Author ScotShot Scott is an NRA and USCCA certified Instructor and Training Counselor in a range of firearms, and home and personal defense disciplines. In an Alternate Universe, he is a husband, father, grandfather, scientist, musician, educator and grumpy old professor. Just your average reactionary, short, fat, old, bald guy!

Two Wednesdays ago I discussed in general terms how food prices are rising generally, not just here in the USA but also in the UK and abroad. Shortly after that, a report emerged suggesting that grocery costs in Germany were about to rise by between 20 to 50%, which is pretty dramatic.

Now, the USDA has released its “Food Outlook for 2022”, presenting their data which, “…summarizes the March 2022 forecasts, which incorporate the February 2022 Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index numbers...” Let’s review some of the highlights, so that we can plan ahead for the next three quarters of 2022. They report that inflation in food prices overall is 7.9% (ie, 8%); that is, overall food is 8% more expensive at the end of February 2022, compared with the end of February 2021. This includes both grocery store costs and eat out costs, and the number for grocery stores is higher, at 8.6%. Is that your experience, Tigers?

Let’s now consider some specifics. You can go to the report and digest the details of the 11 food categories used for yourselves. However, here are some salient points of predicted changes:

• Poultry – costs to increase between 6 and 7% in 2022
• Dairy – costs to increase between 4 and 5% in 2022
• Oils and Fats – costs to increase between 6 and 7% in 2022
• Fruits and Veggies – costs to increase between 3.5 and 4.5% in 2022
• Beef and Pork – costs to increase between 3 and 4% in 2022

Interestingly, they have a separate section on producer and wholesale costs. These are generally higher, suggesting that grocery store prices may be higher than predicted, towards the end of the year. For example, they note that the wholesale price of beef is expected to rise between 4 and 7% in 2022. You can download their data, here, as Excel spreadsheets.

So, what does all of this mean? It ain’t over yet, kiddies. This particular Tiger is buying a little extra of things my family eats each trip. I’m scoping out sources of favorite brands in more than one store. I’m expanding the range of flavorful things such as marinades and sauces. I’m making sure we have our over-the-counter medicines. If I may be storing things for longer, I’m also thinking about protecting then a little better – so pancake mix is going into a ziplock bag for example, to help keep the beasties out.

Last year we noticed odd shortages everywhere – for example we couldn’t get “Raid” at Home Depot, in store or on-line. So, we are preparing now against that recurring. Let’s all think ahead and not expect to be able to find all the things we routinely buy as easily as we did previously. Good Luck!!

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